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货币政策保持支持性立场 央行有望推出更多增量政策_我的网站
一 | 7月末社融存量、M2增速均高于名义GDP增速 货币政策保持支持性立场 央行有望推出更多增量政策 中国人民银行日前发布的《2026年7月金融统计数据报告》显示，7月末，社会融资规模存量、广义货币（M2）增速均明显高于上半年名义GDP增速，社会融资条件处在比较宽松的状态，货币政策延续支持性立场。业内专家普遍认为，货币政策有望在总量和结构性工具方面协同发力，推出更多增量政策，为经济稳中向好提供更有力支撑。
China's auto exports maintained strong growth in July, with shipments exceeding 1 million units for two consecutive months in June and July, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) released on Wednesday, and new-energy vehicle (NEV) exports were particularly strong.
The latest data show that China exported 1.043 million vehicles in July, up 0.6 percent month-on-month and 81.3 percent year-on-year. Auto exports had already exceeded 900,000 units in both April and May, before rising above 1 million units in both June and July.
Notably, NEV exports were particularly upbeat. China exported 553,000 NEVs in July, up 5.7 percent month-on-month and 145.5 percent year-on-year. NEVs have accounted for more than half of China's total auto exports for two consecutive months.
The rapid growth in China's auto exports is mainly attributed to the country's complete automotive industrial chain, the CCTV News reported, citing a representative with the CAAM. From lithium processing and battery manufacturing to electric motors, control systems and vehicle assembly, China has sufficient production capacity, competitive costs and a highly resilient supply chain, said the representative.
The continued growth in NEV exports reflects rising global demand for cost-effective Chinese products and the needs of the global green transition, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the China Passenger Car Association, told the Global Times on Wednesday, noting that China's highly coordinated NEV ecosystem enables faster technological and product upgrades while keeping costs under control, giving the industry a key competitive edge.
Among China's top 10 auto exporters, Chery exported 1.141 million vehicles in the first seven months of the year, up 71 percent year-on-year and accounting for 18.6 percent of total exports. Tesla recorded the fastest growth from a year earlier, with exports reaching 295,000 units, up 130 percent, according to the CAAM.
"Despite rising trade barriers in the US and Europe, China's NEV exports continue to grow rapidly, reflecting strong global demand. Trade restrictions may shift export flows, but cannot easily curb demand for competitive products," said Cui.
Meanwhile, Chinese NEV companies are diversifying its markets, with regions such as Southeast Asia playing a growing role.
The domestic market remained the largest market for NEVs. In the first seven months, NEVs accounted for 53.2 percent of domestic auto sales, according to the CAAM.
The booming demand for China-made NEVs at home and abroad also rebuts the "overcapacity" narrative pushed by some Western media and politicians, as facts and figures show that demand is outpacing supply, Cui said.
An official from China's Ministry of Commerce told a press conference on July 28 that China has the world's largest consumer market, providing a testing ground for new technologies, products and services. The country has ranked first globally in NEV sales for 11 consecutive years.
China has built a complete and highly efficient NEV industrial system covering the entire chain, from basic materials and auto parts to complete vehicles and manufacturing equipment, with globally leading supply chain responsiveness, cost control and delivery speed.
"A complete, efficient and innovative automotive ecosystem is the result of long-term market competition and industrial development... It cannot be easily replicated in the short term or weakened by tariffs and trade barriers," Cui said.
The industry veteran said that looking ahead, China's NEV competitiveness will increasingly be measured not just by exports, but by the global presence of its companies, technologies and supply chains, as domestic automakers shift from mainly exporting vehicles to building production, supply chains and service networks overseas.
。 具体来看，7月末，社会融资规模存量达到463.27万亿元，同比增长7.4%，其中企业债券余额36.47万亿元，同比增长9.2%，政府债券余额102.68万亿元，同比增长14.1%。
二 | M2余额355.51万亿元，同比增长7.7%。
三 | 月末人民币贷款余额282.29万亿元，同比增长5.1%。 “在企业债券融资、政府债券融资等分项同比多增带动下，7月社融时隔4个月再度恢复同比多增，支撑月末社融存量同比增速与上月末持平，结束了此前连续4个月的下行过程。总体来看，当前M2、存量社融增速显著高于上半年名义GDP增速，表明当前社会融资条件处在较为宽松的状态，货币政策保持支持性立场。”东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示。
四 | 不过业内专家也提到，主要受企业融资需求减弱、居民部门持续降杠杆等因素影响，7月人民币贷款继续处于“降速提质”过程。
五 | “目前贷款利率呈现下行趋势，说明在供求关系作用下，贷款投放已经比较充分。贷款增速下降，与企业等经营主体融资方式变化有一定关系，在存量社会融资规模中，债券融资增速明显较高。
六 | 社会融资规模全面反映了实体经济从金融部门获得的融资支持，其增速稳定说明金融对实体经济的支持是足够的。”中国邮政储蓄银行研究员娄飞鹏说。 王青认为，总体上看，7月新增信贷总量依然偏弱，贷款“降速提质”正在成为新常态。从结构上看，当前银行体系正顺应经济转型趋势，优化信贷投向。数据显示，7月末普惠小微等金融“五篇大文章”贷款增速明显高于全部贷款增速，当月新发放贷款加权平均利率降至历史低位，当前信贷投放结构优化，服务实体经济质效提升。 面对国内外经济金融形势的新变化，业内人士认为，央行有望推出更多增量措施。 央行日前发布的《2026年第二季度中国货币政策执行报告》（以下简称《报告》）提出，下阶段，将充分发挥各项存量政策效能，及时谋划出台务实管用的增量政策，加大逆周期调节力度，加力扩大内需、优化供给，推动经济持续向新向优向好发展。 同时，《报告》还要求发挥好货币政策工具总量和结构双重功能，落实好年初出台的一系列货币金融政策，不断完善工具设计和管理，扎实做好金融“五篇大文章”，加强对扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域的金融支持。 南开大学金融学教授田利辉认为，结合二季度货币政策执行报告的表态，预计央行政策重心将更多转向盘活存量、创新结构性工具以及配合财政发力。 “预计结构性货币政策工具将继续降价、增量、扩围，加大对科技融资、普惠金融的定向支持力度，推动新旧动能转换，提升金融服务实体经济质效。综合考虑经济运行态势及物价走势，预计三季度末前后以上增量政策有可能落地。
七 | 值得注意的是，下半年政府债券发行会明显提速，8000亿元新型政策性金融工具将加快推进。
八 | 这会带动政府债券融资恢复同比多增，并拉动配套贷款投放。
九 | 由此，下半年社融有望恢复同比多增。”王青说。（记者 袁小康）。
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